Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    176.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  10.3  10.2  12.2  21.7  24.5  25.8  27.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  88.0  91.0  92.0  96.0  97.0  98.0 100.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  -6.0 -20.0  -8.0  28.0  18.0  39.0  32.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.3%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       27.6%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       13.2%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       11.6%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       11.6%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       36.4%       25.4%
 55kt / 36h       12.3%       16.1%       14.2%
 55kt / 48h       33.5%       23.6%       28.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       16.1%       20.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       40.7%       51.6%