Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    175.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  10.5   6.8   9.2  19.8  20.9  28.4  29.1  F  F VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  46.0  52.0  54.0  28.0  21.0  60.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -20.0  -7.0  10.0  15.0  39.0  51.0  20.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.4%       25.4%       15.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       11.8%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       11.3%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       11.3%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       31.0%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       12.2%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%       17.9%       16.8%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%       10.7%        9.6%
 65kt / 72h       24.1%       20.2%       22.1%