Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    175.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.2   6.8   9.5  17.1  22.7  26.4  27.8  32.8  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  92.0  92.0  95.0 100.0  99.0 100.0 106.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  -7.0  10.0  28.0  18.0  39.0  32.0   6.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  52.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  -4.0  -8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        5.8%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       35.2%       23.2%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       18.3%       12.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%       15.9%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       15.9%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       16.5%       41.9%       29.2%
 55kt / 36h       14.4%       19.0%       16.7%
 55kt / 48h       40.0%       27.2%       33.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       18.9%       21.8%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       39.3%       50.8%