Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    174.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  11.4   8.2  13.4  17.1  22.5  24.3  29.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  51.0  36.0  24.0  24.0  61.0  26.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   9.0  -9.0 -18.0   5.0  29.0   3.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       20.6%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        8.5%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        7.8%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        7.8%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       27.3%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%       10.9%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       18.6%       15.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%       11.8%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h       16.1%       22.0%       19.0%