Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210812 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    172.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.0   9.5  12.6  14.5  16.7  18.8  22.7  26.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  44.0  25.0  19.0  51.0  46.0  24.0  42.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0 -10.0 -18.0  -9.0  25.0   9.0   0.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       15.1%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        5.1%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.1%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       22.9%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        8.3%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%       16.8%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%       10.6%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h       24.4%       22.2%       23.3%