Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    169.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  13.3  11.9  10.7  15.4  16.6  21.6  23.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  97.0 100.0 102.0 101.0 107.0 110.0 116.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0   8.0  23.0  29.0  27.0  22.0  46.0  18.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%       11.9%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       31.0%       61.5%       46.3%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       40.0%       29.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%       40.0%       24.2%
 40kt / 24h        8.5%       38.4%       23.4%
 45kt / 36h       33.3%       75.9%       54.6%
 55kt / 36h       28.6%       60.5%       44.6%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       30.7%       40.9%
 70kt / 48h       30.7%       61.1%       45.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       80.0%       71.2%