Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    168.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  12.4  10.6  12.4  15.4  22.1  26.9  31.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  27.0  63.0  86.0  29.0  33.0 135.0 117.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VF  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  24.0  26.0  30.0  26.0  39.0  61.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   5.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        8.9%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       23.6%       56.4%       40.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       41.9%       27.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       41.9%       24.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       38.5%       22.9%
 45kt / 36h       19.7%       65.6%       42.6%
 55kt / 36h       13.3%       48.7%       31.0%
 55kt / 48h       25.8%       42.1%       34.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       32.9%       21.9%
 65kt / 72h       41.8%       44.9%       43.4%