Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    167.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  10.5  12.4  14.9  20.0  23.5  27.3  34.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0 102.0 100.0  99.0 107.0 110.0 120.0 121.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  26.0  30.0  37.0  27.0  54.0  41.0  11.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        8.3%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       47.7%       37.0%
 30kt / 24h       17.3%       28.8%       23.0%
 35kt / 24h        6.4%       28.8%       17.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       28.8%       17.4%
 45kt / 36h       29.5%       53.7%       41.6%
 55kt / 36h       24.4%       33.4%       28.9%
 55kt / 48h       50.0%       40.1%       45.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       31.8%       28.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       51.1%       56.8%