Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    164.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  15.4  15.8  18.5  27.7  26.2  33.2  32.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  53.0  34.0  33.0  93.0 113.0 114.0  93.0  F  N  U  U  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   4.0  -1.0   7.0  30.0  42.0  29.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  68.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       24.8%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%       10.8%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%       10.8%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        9.6%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       26.6%       15.5%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%       10.5%        6.5%
 55kt / 48h       18.9%       19.2%       19.1%
 70kt / 48h       10.0%       10.3%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       46.8%       24.9%       35.9%