Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    154.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  19.8  20.5  20.0  25.6  25.7  21.2  13.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  119.0 109.0 121.0 123.0  78.0 171.0 160.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  N VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   3.0   8.0  21.0  47.0  72.0  89.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  63.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       13.5%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        5.0%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.5%       18.4%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%        5.0%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       40.2%       15.7%       27.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       10.5%       17.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       61.9%       62.1%