Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  39.8  45.4  52.4  61.8  56.1  69.0  81.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  44.0  35.0  25.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 100.7  52.9  52.9  22.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0   1.0 -15.0   0.0  38.0 109.0 108.0  57.0 VU  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -15.0 -21.0 -36.0 -45.0  47.0  63.0  56.0  F VF VF VF VF VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        1.9%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%