Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.7  62.0  63.6  56.6  65.1  72.1  76.6  72.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  26.0  22.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9  55.5  63.0  40.9  15.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   2.0  50.0  23.0  96.0  96.0  69.0  76.0  U  U  N  U  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  66.0  73.0  78.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   8.0  53.0  50.0  33.0  20.0  N  F  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%