Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172021 210902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    158.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  15.8  24.4  27.6  36.2  56.4  60.7  62.9  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  23.0  12.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 132.0 112.4  96.0  59.7  30.9  30.9  30.5  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  25.0   5.0 -19.0  39.0  37.0  -8.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -5.0   4.0  11.0   3.0 -23.0  -8.0  F  F  F  N  U  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%