Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172021 210903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  24.4  23.5  30.0  51.7  60.8  60.4  66.4  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 106.6  83.6  79.4  38.4  36.2  31.3  24.6  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0 -15.0  14.0  25.0  35.0   4.0   9.0 -32.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0 -12.0 -13.0   1.0 -16.0  22.0  49.0  F  F  F VF  N VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons