Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172021 210903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50    158.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  17.9  24.2  36.8  49.6  52.5  41.3  44.3  N  F  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5  88.0  79.4  58.7  39.0  33.7  32.2  33.2  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0   6.0  31.0  42.0   2.0 -28.0  61.0   5.0 VU  U  N  N  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -7.0  -4.0  19.0  46.0  88.0  99.0  N  N  F  F VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons