Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172021 210903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    159.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  25.1  38.9  43.7  57.2  61.7  76.2  92.8  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  88.6  59.1  45.8  37.2  32.3  24.2  21.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  31.0  42.0  19.0   2.0  58.0  44.0   8.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -10.0  -4.0   4.0   6.0  70.0 141.0 213.0  F  F  F  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons