Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  17.9  20.8  21.9  21.1  20.7  21.3  18.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  71.0   7.0  34.0  37.0  25.0  61.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         93.6  91.5 104.6 110.0 110.0  85.5 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  76.0  75.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.8%       23.4%       31.6%
 25kt / 24h       49.4%       57.9%       53.7%
 30kt / 24h       45.9%       45.3%       45.6%
 35kt / 24h       45.9%       45.3%       45.6%
 40kt / 24h       45.9%       45.3%       45.6%
 45kt / 36h       37.2%       54.2%       45.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       33.5%       16.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.4%       24.3%       23.3%
 70kt / 48h       15.3%       18.2%       16.7%
 65kt / 72h       21.0%       24.0%       22.5%