Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  19.6  19.0  22.1  26.3  20.2  29.4  26.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  66.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         87.4 109.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  11.0  19.0   9.0  41.0  34.0  63.0  33.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.1%       10.1%       10.1%
 25kt / 24h       26.2%       43.1%       34.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       31.5%       25.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.8%       31.5%       21.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       30.4%       20.1%
 45kt / 36h       20.3%       33.8%       27.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.6%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       23.4%       22.4%       22.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.3%       10.2%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h       23.9%       18.1%       21.0%