Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  22.9  27.2  31.0  26.4  24.9  32.5  29.2  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   7.0  17.0   8.0  70.0  54.0  58.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        109.3 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  38.0  28.0  14.0  51.0  36.0  26.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  72.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.4%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       10.2%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        5.1%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.1%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        5.5%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        4.6%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        2.8%        2.7%