Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  20.2  21.8  23.8  22.3  36.4  43.9  52.7  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  70.0  84.0  82.0  75.0  55.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.7 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  19.0  32.0  71.0  99.0  59.0  29.0  53.0  N  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   4.0   5.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.2%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       15.7%       12.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%        8.2%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        7.6%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        7.6%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%       12.8%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%        7.7%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%        2.3%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%        2.6%        5.4%