Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  39.3  43.9  46.8  42.6  42.1  40.1  45.7  U  U VU VU VU VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  46.0  45.0  39.0  22.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  69.4  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  75.0  85.0  73.0  86.0  63.0  46.0  48.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -9.0  -8.0  -8.0  -4.0  -7.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%