Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  30.0  29.7  36.3  29.6  31.0  30.8  33.6  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  30.0  31.0  26.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 105.1  94.4  77.7  98.6 100.7  81.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  47.0  47.0  26.0  33.0  11.0  16.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        3.2%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       11.7%        8.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        4.9%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        4.7%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        4.7%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.7%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%