Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  33.0  38.3  39.5  29.7  33.6  25.1  27.3  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  24.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1  79.4  83.0  86.6 114.3 112.0  69.6  45.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  47.0  26.0  40.0  18.0  18.0  22.0  48.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -9.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%