Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  38.8  39.7  37.1  38.9  38.0  42.6  46.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.5  55.9  46.8  44.1  57.0  64.2  60.5  53.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  78.0  85.0  82.0  73.0  71.0  81.0  83.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons