Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182021 210912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  30.9  25.7  30.7  22.9  26.1  21.7  21.7  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  27.0  41.0  87.0  12.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 129.6 135.0 135.0 129.6 132.0  75.4  75.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  41.0  37.0  18.0  26.0  14.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  75.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.3%        1.0%