Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    138.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.5  15.1  18.3  19.3  25.3  34.2  29.6  29.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  127.0 125.0 122.0 120.0 117.0 112.0 107.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  18.0  -4.0  -8.0  32.0  48.0  36.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  16.0  14.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%       10.8%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       26.6%       56.5%       41.5%
 30kt / 24h       15.9%       37.7%       26.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       32.8%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       32.8%       17.3%
 45kt / 36h       29.7%       71.3%       50.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       52.2%       26.1%
 55kt / 48h       50.2%       42.7%       46.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       38.7%       31.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       57.5%       59.7%