Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.5  12.4  17.6  17.2  24.9  27.1  31.7  22.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  96.0  87.0  78.0  82.0  86.0  54.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -14.0   5.0  11.0  26.0  25.0  33.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -9.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%       22.3%       15.9%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       69.1%       52.2%
 30kt / 24h       22.9%       55.0%       39.0%
 35kt / 24h       12.0%       53.4%       32.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       52.8%       31.0%
 45kt / 36h       31.5%       79.3%       55.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       67.1%       33.6%
 55kt / 48h       44.7%       50.2%       47.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       50.0%       37.4%
 65kt / 72h       41.7%       59.5%       50.6%