Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  16.0  14.4  17.2  28.5  28.5  33.6  30.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  120.0 117.0 115.0 113.0 111.0 116.0 112.0 106.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0 -31.0   0.0  21.0  13.0  35.0  49.0  46.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   9.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.2%       31.4%       22.8%
 25kt / 24h       54.5%       80.4%       67.5%
 30kt / 24h       38.7%       71.9%       55.3%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       71.8%       48.5%
 40kt / 24h       13.4%       69.5%       41.4%
 45kt / 36h       42.4%       85.1%       63.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       76.4%       38.2%
 55kt / 48h       51.2%       61.5%       56.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       60.0%       42.4%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       68.6%       65.2%