Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    134.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  32.1  38.1  34.9  33.3  24.4  25.3  39.9  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  126.0 151.0 138.0 126.0 117.0  77.0  76.0  96.0  F VF VF  F  F  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  45.0  23.0  27.0  36.0  47.0   8.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   7.0  20.0  11.0   3.0   9.0  49.0  N  N  N VU  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       75.2%       48.0%       61.6%
 25kt / 24h       72.4%       69.2%       70.8%
 30kt / 24h       72.4%       62.4%       67.4%
 35kt / 24h       64.6%       62.4%       63.5%
 40kt / 24h       64.6%       61.0%       62.8%
 45kt / 36h       50.2%       46.8%       48.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.5%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h       34.7%       27.7%       31.2%
 70kt / 48h       22.3%       10.6%       16.5%
 65kt / 72h       24.6%       10.5%       17.6%