Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    133.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    55.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  36.4  34.9  30.1  32.5  36.3  33.6  35.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 120.0 122.0 123.0 121.0 117.0 106.0  93.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  23.0  28.0  48.0  30.0  11.0  34.0  60.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  69.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0  20.0  11.0  18.0  34.0  44.0  37.0  N  U VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.5%        6.2%       22.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.0%        7.4%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h       15.0%        3.7%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%