Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    132.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  35.7  33.7  30.3  33.7  31.8  31.4  35.3  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  126.0 126.0 119.0 109.0  69.0  80.0  65.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  26.0  33.0  39.0  35.0  66.0  51.0  71.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  13.0  18.0  13.0  27.0  40.0  34.0  32.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.6%        5.1%       22.4%
 25kt / 24h       15.0%        6.7%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.0%        3.0%        9.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%        2.5%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%