Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    131.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  37.4  33.5  32.9  36.4  32.2  37.9  36.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  123.0 124.0 122.0 124.0 120.0  88.0  80.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  24.3  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  34.0  39.0  36.0  35.0  58.0  42.0 116.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  20.0  16.0  11.0  42.0  31.0  41.0  30.0  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.1%        0.0%        9.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%