Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210908 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.9  34.2  31.3  36.4  49.4  44.8  38.2  25.6  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 115.0  95.0  79.0  74.0  25.0  70.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  20.1  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  57.0  52.0  50.5  55.0  84.0  78.0  78.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  14.0  24.5  53.0  46.0  33.0   4.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        0.9%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%