Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  29.8  31.3  39.5  37.6  49.3  45.8  44.6  U  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  83.0  80.0  83.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  11.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  47.0  44.0  67.0  65.0 117.0 102.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  18.0  22.0  29.0  25.0  32.0  16.0  17.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        0.0%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%