Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210909 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  26.4  25.0  25.9  25.5  30.7  29.4  34.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  77.0  77.0  73.0  65.0  67.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  60.0  95.0 112.0 127.0 150.0  74.0  43.0  N  N  F  F  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  76.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0  -2.0 -15.0   0.0 -11.0 -42.0  N  N  N  N VF  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%