Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210910 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    122.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  25.9  25.8  21.4  26.6  31.1  34.9  43.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  56.0  40.0  44.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  75.0 106.0 120.0 107.0  53.0 105.0  55.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  73.0  70.0  63.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0 -34.0 -47.0 -22.0 -30.0 -66.0 -65.0  19.0  U VF VF VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.1%        0.0%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%