Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210910 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  25.1  23.4  24.1  29.5  28.4  32.1  39.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   88.0  79.0  78.0  73.0  50.0  32.0  20.0  10.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0   0.7  15.0   7.3  -3.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0 106.0 121.0 104.0  86.0  86.0 110.0  20.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -31.0 -40.0 -23.0 -28.0 -43.0 -35.0 -25.0  29.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%