Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210911 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  25.7  35.7  29.8  39.4  36.5  40.7  33.9  N  N  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  31.0  56.0  34.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  10.1   1.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 147.0 140.0 107.0  58.0 101.0  29.0  45.0  F VF VF  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  76.0  65.0  68.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -51.0 -28.0 -60.0 -34.0 -63.0 -54.0  32.0  23.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%