Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210911 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  12.1  14.1  15.3  18.1  21.3  20.2  26.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  62.0  60.0  47.0  36.0  25.0  11.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  17.3  24.3  25.0  25.0  25.0   8.6   0.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0 130.0 144.0 153.0 138.0 139.0  95.0 101.0  N  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -6.0  -1.0   7.0  17.0  12.0   7.0   1.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%