Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    121.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  27.1  24.7  20.5  12.7  19.1  17.2  21.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  39.0   6.0  20.0  52.0   6.0  13.0  20.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.7  20.5  42.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  42.0  30.7 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0 119.0 138.0 120.0 128.0  96.0 125.0  79.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  73.0  66.0  61.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  16.0  30.0  29.0  15.0   8.0   3.0   0.0  N  U VU VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%