Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210911 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    122.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  27.7  19.7  21.1  26.5  26.4  24.0  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  73.0  37.0  34.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  32.4  17.7  16.0  17.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 101.0  70.0  66.0  51.0  43.0  18.0  16.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  57.0  46.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   4.0  -2.0   1.0  12.0   1.0 -17.0 -10.0  U  N  N  N  U  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%