Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  14.9  17.0  18.7  30.2  22.5  23.8  23.8  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  58.0  36.0   4.0   7.0   8.0   1.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  36.5  26.6  23.0  23.0  26.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  60.0  75.0  73.0  15.0  16.0 -16.0  14.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  64.0  58.0  55.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   0.0   0.0 -16.0 -27.0  -3.0 -12.0  -4.0  U  N  N VF VF  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.0%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%