Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.20    122.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  17.0  18.6  24.9  26.6  25.5  21.3  30.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  37.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  32.4  19.4  11.1   6.5   6.5  11.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  75.0  73.0  54.0  17.0   4.0   8.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  48.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0 -15.0 -19.0  -9.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.7%        2.6%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        3.1%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.7%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%