Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  12.3  14.8  24.7  17.3  18.1  11.9  20.1  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  56.0  39.0  27.0  26.0  25.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  57.9  49.4  51.5  51.5  45.5  45.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  93.0 106.0  79.0 111.0  81.0  71.0  70.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  56.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        5.3%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        3.1%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%        1.3%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%