Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  19.3  29.0  20.0  19.5  12.3  24.8  23.7  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  20.0  19.0  14.0  19.0  31.0  22.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  72.3  70.1  63.6  63.6  70.1  67.9  59.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 106.0  79.0  80.0  71.0  65.0  78.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        4.2%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.4%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%        0.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        1.2%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%