Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  30.5  22.9  17.3  12.4  18.0  31.7  34.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  30.0  25.0  21.0  28.0  27.0  23.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  70.1  67.9  63.6  72.3  74.6  67.9  53.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  27.0  14.0  38.0 -33.0   9.0   0.0  -5.0  N  U  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  55.0  60.0  50.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   8.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  22.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        4.1%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        1.2%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%