Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  25.3  18.4  19.9  10.1  17.7  15.6  28.1  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0   9.0  13.0  13.0  17.0  32.0  22.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.5  63.5  65.5  67.4  73.6  80.1  73.6  61.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  14.0  38.0  -1.0 -10.0  -3.0 -16.0  40.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  56.0  51.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons