Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.00    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  20.7  17.9  16.5   9.9  12.0  18.9  32.6  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  21.0  23.0  23.0  19.0  17.0  11.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  79.4  83.6  85.7  92.3  94.6  85.7  66.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  50.0  44.0  21.0  28.0  -4.0  51.0  74.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  42.0  44.0  48.0  53.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   1.0   9.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        0.4%        2.9%