Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30    123.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  14.4  14.9  11.6  10.9  17.7  33.2  41.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  35.0  34.0  32.0  31.0  18.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.9 104.6 107.0 107.0 104.6  93.6  71.0  45.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0 -42.0 -35.0 -25.0 -18.0  39.0  62.0  54.0  N VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  54.0  58.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0 -31.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.5%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        3.4%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        3.2%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        0.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        0.7%        0.9%