Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.10    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  13.3  15.6  22.0  24.1  29.3  47.7  62.6  F  F  F  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  30.0  20.0  16.0  24.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 129.6 125.1 116.5  99.4  55.9  34.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -8.0   4.0  36.0  72.0  73.0  62.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0  -2.0  20.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%       11.4%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        5.3%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.3%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       10.1%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.4%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%